The Stove’s Shootouts (Week 3)

September 19, 2007

 

Who better than the Vegas odds makers to point us in the right direction for our fantasy starts?

 

We are going to dissect their judgment, and in doing so, highlight their adjustments, and as you’ll see, tease out some emerging scoring offenses.  So, saddle up to the bar, grab a beer, and let’s immerse ourselves into the world of NFL shootouts.  We’ll play catch up, then dig in to this week’s match ups.

 

Going into the new season, here are their picks on possible shootouts (top five over match ups, in order), with “result” meaning a highly favorable start (by position) resulted from this game.  Teams in bold hit it big.  Misses were clubs which hit it big but not in the projected top five:

 

WEEK 1:

 

Match up:                      NO                   @            IND:                 

Fantasy Result:                                                 QB,RB, WR(2)

 

Match up:                      ARI                   @            SF:                  

Fantasy Result:                                                

 

Match up:                      NYG                 @            DAL:                

Fantasy Result:             QB,RB,WR(2)               QB,RB, WR

 

Match up:                      CAR                 @            STL:                

Fantasy Result:             QB,WR                         WR

 

Match up:                      CHI                   @            SD:                  

Fantasy Result:                                                 TE

 

Odds makers Missed: NE, PIT, DET, CIN

 

Analysis: Clubs NO, ARI, STL and SD disappointed given their performance in ’06.  As you’ll see, some will be given another chance to prove themselves.

 

WEEK 2:

 

Match up:                      SD                    @            NE:                  

Fantasy Result:             TE                                QB,WR(2)

 

Match up:                      IND                   @            TEN:                

Fantasy Result:             QB,RB                         

 

Match up:                      SF                    @            STL:                

Fantasy Result:                                                 QB,WR(2)

 

Match up:                      MIN                  @            DET:                

Fantasy Result:             QB,WR                         WR

 

Match up:                      SEA                  @            ARI:                 

Fantasy Result:             WR                               RB

 

Odds makers Missed: GB, CLE vs CIN, HOU vs CAR, TB, DAL

 

Analysis: It didn’t take long for NO to fall out of favor, yet SF popped up again.  Yes, NO, ARI and SD have proven playmakers, but they’re likely killing you in fantasy circles, at least in terms of where you had to draft them.  CIN’s no mystery, but they had perceived tougher match ups to begin, so they weren’t in the top five.  That will change in hurry.  And don’t you think odds makers wanted that HOU@CAR match up back?  HOU, GB and DET have emerged!

 

WEEK 3:

 

Match up:            CIN            @            SEA:                

Comment:

I just picked up Engram in my “experts” league.  Let’s get it on.  Some other guy named “Holt” is on my watch list, although pass targets data show he wasn’t exactly zeroed in by Palmer. CIN’s Week 4 match up with NE is looming, though, so maybe there’s a decent third fantasy WR out of CIN who’s not a headcase.

 

Match up:            IND            @            HOU:               

Comment:

The loss of AJ –what a shame- is a true test for that emerging attack.  No way IND’s gonna let HOU shorten the game; they’ll want to pop for two quick ones early, and force HOU’s hand.

So…you guessed it: I picked up TE O. Daniels as well. Also, I presume vet Walter becomes the go-to, so plug him in if you’re in a what-the-&^%$ mode.  This could be fun.

 

Match up:            TEN            @            NO:                 

Comment:

You know, I just don’t want to hear about OL woes.  STL and WAS are dealing with it. C’mon NO, show up.  I mentioned to our Greg Alan, just before my draft of Brees as a key pick, whether he thought the NLF might have figured out Sean Payton’s scheme over the summer….

Why did TEN sign Moulds, actually?  On paper, this is a game you’d love to throw him in.  Me? Maybe watch, learn, and start Moulds in a HOU or a CIN match up later in the season.  But, jeez, the odds makers really like this one…

 

Match up:            DET            @            PHI:                 

Comment:

I presume there was a run on McDonald, DET’s version of Az-Hakim while he was with STL.  BTW, why isn’t STL in this top five?  Oh, I see..they’re playing TB.  But, didn’t TB go off in Week 2?  Anyway, back to this game.  Some guy named Avant is PHI’s leading WR so far, which is a joke.  Don’t you get tired of reading about pro-level receivers “not getting open”?  I’m teaching ten-year-olds this concept right now.  Brown and Curtis, grow the-&^%$ up already.  Do you start’em?  Yeah, these guys ain’t ATL or JAC.  But as throw-away #3s, no more than that.

 

Match up:            SD            @            GB:                 

Comment:

With LT and Gates in the attack, SD keeps popping up in the top five.  We have GB going off for three 4^th-qtr pass TDs, validating Favre I guess.  You have to love how GB is winning –against supposedly quality opponents—with the drivel they are using at RB. Scary to think they might actually draft a top-tier back some time soon.  I just get the feeling that this line has to do with splitting the action, not shoot out potential per se. Wouldn’t be surprised either way.  Looking forward to the game.

 

Quick Note: I guarantee you Stove shoot out darlings CAR and DAL were not featured only because of their low-scoring-opponent match ups.  It will be interesting to see, though, how they plan to attack, since their pass attacks went off the past two weeks, but their RBs were RBBC’d, watering down the fantasy impact at that position.